KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

16%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

EPSNO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +84.10u · EPS −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	35.7%	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	8.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	65.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	53.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	68.8%	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	5.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	26.0%	13.2%	—	19.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	36.9%	15.8%	41.6%	20.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	15.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	23.2%	15.6%	7.6%	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	5.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	16.9%	2.3%	23.4%	36.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	11.6%	—	41.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	18.9%	7.2%	18.9%	39.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	25.6%	17.9%	—	43.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	25.1%	6.3%	24.5%	45.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	30.3%	24.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	24.8%	17.2%	28.4%	47.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	18.4%	27.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	30%	53.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	55.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	56.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	58.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	57.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 50°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-LE50
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 50°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗