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KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
30%
ICON
16%
AIFS
10%
EPS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u
VS
EPSNO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +84.10u · EPS −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 11:2010-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:0012.4%11.9%4.7%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0012.4%11.9%4.7%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0012.4%11.9%4.7%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0012.4%11.9%4.7%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0012.4%11.9%4.7%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:0012.4%2.4%2.4%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0012.4%2.4%2.4%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:0012.4%2.4%2.4%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:009.6%2.4%2.4%29.5%16.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:009.5%2.3%2.3%29.5%16.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES30%53.2°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON16%55.3°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast16%55.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single10%56.5°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%58.0°F3.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%55.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%57.9°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 50°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-LE50
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 50°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗