KBOS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

96%

76%

58%

57%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 78.05u

HRESNO 22.0¢Risks 21.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.95u · HRES −21.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	84.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	78.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	71.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	42.2%	—	57.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	63.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	65.8%	48.6%	—	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	76.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	33.0%	46.5%	30.5%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	36.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	33.0%	54.4%	42.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	74.2%	62.0%	74.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	64.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	63.3%	72.6%	39.7%	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	13.9%	87.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	61.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	61.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	55.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	76%	56.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	53.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	53.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	53.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261024-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗