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KBOS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
96%
ICON
76%
EPS
58%
HRES
57%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 78.05u
VS
HRESNO 22.0¢Risks 21.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.95u · HRES −21.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:10+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:10+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00ICON: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:10+00:0087.8%39.4%96.4%64.8%84.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:0087.8%39.4%95.5%64.8%84.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0087.8%39.4%95.5%64.8%84.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0087.8%39.4%95.5%64.8%84.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:0094.9%39.4%95.5%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0094.9%39.4%95.5%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0094.9%39.4%95.5%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0094.9%39.4%95.5%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0094.9%39.4%95.5%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:0094.9%57.9%98.6%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0094.9%57.9%98.6%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:0094.9%57.9%98.6%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:0096.4%57.9%98.6%57.5%76.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0096.4%57.9%98.6%57.5%76.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%61.5°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single96%61.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend78%55.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON76%56.9°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%53.4°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%53.6°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%53.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261024-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗