KBOS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

53%

35%

19%

14%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

EPSNO 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.75u · EPS −54.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	9.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	66.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	8.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	56.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	46.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	19.8%	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	37.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	39.3%	23.8%	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	12.6%	21.4%	11.2%	24.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	14.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	12.0%	26.6%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	45.4%	32.3%	46.2%	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	34.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	32.3%	42.1%	14.5%	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	2.9%	63.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	60.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	56.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	53.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	50.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	51.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗