KBOS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

53%

35%

19%

14%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

EPSNO 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.75u · EPS −54.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:34+00:00	73.4%	32.4%	50.0%	21.9%	42.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	73.4%	32.4%	61.5%	21.9%	42.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	73.4%	32.4%	61.5%	21.9%	42.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	73.4%	32.4%	61.5%	21.9%	42.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	73.4%	32.4%	61.5%	21.9%	42.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:43+00:00	46.3%	32.4%	61.5%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	46.3%	32.4%	61.5%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	46.3%	32.4%	61.5%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	46.3%	32.4%	61.5%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	46.3%	32.4%	61.5%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	46.3%	13.2%	53.4%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	46.3%	13.2%	53.4%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	46.3%	13.2%	53.4%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	77.0%	13.5%	53.4%	19.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	77.0%	13.5%	53.4%	19.0%	35.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	60.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	56.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	53.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	50.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	51.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗