KBOS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

57%

35%

31%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.00u · ICON −37.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	2.8%	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	76.7%	26.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	12.5%	37.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	36.8%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	3.5%	59.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	53.3%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	5.4%	60.0%	62.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	56.9%	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	70.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	72.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	64.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	61.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	58.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261026-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗