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KBOS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
AIFS
92%
HRES
57%
EPS
35%
ICON
31%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 63.0¢Risks 63.00u
VS
ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.00u · ICON −37.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:0091.5%34.7%94.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0091.5%34.7%94.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0091.5%34.7%94.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0091.5%34.7%94.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0091.5%34.7%94.8%56.8%31.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 295%72.4°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single92%71.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%64.6°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend55%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble35%61.1°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON31%58.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261026-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗