KBOS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

56%

18%

12%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.6¢Risks 38.65u

EPSNO 61.4¢Risks 61.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.35u · EPS −61.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	0.2%	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	36.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	1.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	7.2%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	0.2%	18.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	14.0%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	17.6%	19.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	15.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	73.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	71.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	64.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	58.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	64.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗