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KBOS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
70%
AIFS
56%
HRES
18%
ICON
12%
EPS
7%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 38.6¢Risks 38.65u
VS
EPSNO 61.4¢Risks 61.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.35u · EPS −61.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 10:3410-19 12:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:0056.2%6.2%63.6%18.0%11.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0056.2%6.2%63.6%18.0%11.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0056.2%6.2%63.6%18.0%11.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0056.2%6.2%63.6%18.0%11.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0056.2%6.2%63.6%18.0%11.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0056.2%7.2%70.1%18.0%11.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0056.2%7.2%70.1%18.0%11.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:0056.2%7.2%70.1%18.0%11.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 270%73.2°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single56%71.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES18%64.6°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON12%58.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%64.5°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend5%65.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗