KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 48°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

81%

80%

72%

60%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

HRESNO 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.25u · HRES −20.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	91.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	98.3%	—	—	94.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	98.2%	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	97.9%	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	100.0%	99.1%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	92.8%	98.4%	75.9%	—	82.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	94.3%	91.0%	—	74.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	39.4%	69.1%	77.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	75.2%	77.6%	55.6%	—	73.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	69.5%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	96.1%	75.5%	72.1%	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	92.2%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	63.7%	49.1%	62.9%	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	84.5%	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	50.0%	61.8%	58.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	43.4%	69.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	70.4%	72.1%	63.4%	—	56.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	48.0%	69.2%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	66.0%	60.2%	62.2%	—	60.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	52.1%	71.2%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	69.9%	66.9%	34.1%	60.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	74.2%	76.0%	32.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	83.2%	75.8%	45.4%	—	53.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	78.4%	74.7%	44.0%	—	47.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	91.5%	75.4%	57.4%	78.3%	51.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	93.2%	74.1%	53.9%	—	51.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	93.0%	70.5%	60.6%	69.3%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	89.6%	74.7%	37.7%	—	43.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	87.8%	82.8%	33.1%	66.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	27.2%	66.2%	38.1%	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	23.8%	75.0%	42.1%	27.6%	22.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.5%	73.3%	37.0%	—	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9980
ICON	81%	50.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6561
WeatherNext 2	80%	50.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.6480
AIFS Single	72%	49.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.5184
IFS HRES	60%	48.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3552
NWS forecast	59%	48.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
National Blend	59%	48.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3457

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 48°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMAX-GE48
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 48°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗