KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 48°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

81%

80%

72%

60%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

HRESNO 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.25u · HRES −20.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:40+00:00	50.8%	98.7%	84.8%	87.4%	84.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	50.8%	98.2%	84.8%	87.4%	84.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	50.8%	98.2%	81.8%	87.4%	84.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	50.8%	98.2%	81.8%	87.4%	84.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	50.8%	98.2%	81.8%	87.4%	84.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	50.8%	98.2%	81.8%	87.4%	84.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	54.1%	98.2%	81.8%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	54.1%	98.2%	81.8%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	54.1%	98.2%	81.8%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	54.1%	98.2%	81.8%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	54.1%	98.2%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	54.1%	98.2%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	54.1%	98.2%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	54.1%	98.4%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T04:15:19+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	81.1%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	83.7%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	83.7%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:02+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	83.7%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	67.3%	98.4%	83.7%	63.6%	96.9%
2026-10-13T08:02:42+00:00	52.6%	98.4%	83.7%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	52.6%	98.4%	83.7%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	52.6%	98.4%	83.7%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	52.6%	98.4%	83.7%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	52.6%	97.6%	56.4%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	52.6%	97.6%	56.4%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	52.6%	97.6%	56.4%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	52.6%	97.6%	56.4%	46.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	50.9%	97.4%	56.4%	46.8%	74.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	50.9%	97.1%	56.4%	46.8%	74.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:17+00:00	50.9%	97.1%	56.4%	46.8%	74.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	50.9%	97.1%	56.4%	46.8%	74.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	50.9%	97.1%	65.7%	46.8%	74.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	50.9%	97.1%	65.7%	46.8%	74.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	50.9%	97.1%	65.7%	46.8%	74.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	65.7%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	65.7%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	65.7%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T21:42:59+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	65.7%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	65.7%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	54.3%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	56.9%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	57.4%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	57.4%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	57.4%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	57.4%	97.1%	66.6%	42.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	57.4%	97.1%	66.6%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:34+00:00	57.4%	96.5%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	57.4%	96.5%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	57.4%	96.5%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	64.5%	96.5%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	64.5%	96.4%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:02+00:00	64.5%	97.0%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	64.5%	97.0%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	64.5%	97.0%	78.8%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	64.5%	97.0%	78.0%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	64.5%	97.0%	78.0%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	64.5%	97.0%	78.0%	44.7%	76.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	70.4%	97.0%	78.0%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	70.4%	97.0%	78.0%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	70.4%	97.0%	78.0%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	70.4%	97.0%	78.0%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	70.4%	97.0%	78.0%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:29+00:00	70.4%	97.0%	78.0%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	70.4%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	70.4%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T04:01:49+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	72.8%	97.1%	78.8%	64.0%	71.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:00+00:00	73.0%	97.1%	78.8%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	73.0%	97.1%	78.8%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	73.0%	97.1%	78.8%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	73.0%	97.1%	78.8%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	73.0%	97.1%	78.8%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	73.0%	97.1%	79.9%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	73.0%	99.8%	79.9%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	73.0%	99.8%	79.9%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	75.4%	99.7%	79.9%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	75.4%	99.7%	79.9%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	75.4%	99.8%	79.9%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	75.4%	99.8%	79.9%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	75.4%	99.8%	84.1%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	75.4%	99.8%	84.1%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	75.4%	99.8%	84.1%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	75.4%	99.8%	84.1%	55.8%	67.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	73.9%	99.8%	84.1%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	73.9%	99.8%	84.1%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	73.9%	99.8%	84.1%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	73.9%	99.8%	84.1%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	73.9%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	73.9%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	73.9%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	79.0%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	70.6%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	80.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	71.9%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	71.9%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	71.9%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	71.9%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	71.9%	99.8%	78.1%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	71.9%	99.9%	73.2%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	71.9%	99.9%	73.2%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	71.9%	99.9%	73.2%	61.5%	81.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	72.8%	99.9%	73.2%	54.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	72.8%	99.9%	73.2%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:00	72.8%	99.8%	73.2%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	72.8%	99.8%	73.2%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:06+00:00	72.8%	99.8%	73.2%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	72.8%	99.8%	70.9%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	72.8%	99.8%	70.9%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	72.8%	99.8%	70.9%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	72.0%	99.8%	70.9%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	72.0%	99.8%	70.9%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	72.0%	99.8%	70.9%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	72.0%	99.8%	70.9%	54.3%	81.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	72.0%	99.8%	70.9%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:01+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	67.2%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:20+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	80.5%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	80.5%	59.6%	81.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	72.0%	99.9%	80.5%	59.6%	81.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9980
ICON	81%	50.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6561
WeatherNext 2	80%	50.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.6480
AIFS Single	72%	49.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.5184
IFS HRES	60%	48.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3552
NWS forecast	59%	48.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
National Blend	59%	48.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3457

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 48°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMAX-GE48
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 48°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗