KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≤ 48°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

37%

30%

28%

<1%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 25.7¢Risks 25.70u

EPSNO 74.3¢Risks 74.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +74.30u · EPS −74.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	2.6%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	9.9%	2.4%	29.8%	—	23.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	8.2%	12.4%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	67.7%	38.0%	28.9%	—	40.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	31.6%	28.8%	52.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	38.0%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	6.1%	31.5%	35.3%	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	11.5%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	44.8%	59.6%	45.6%	—	55.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	21.5%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	59.1%	47.2%	50.9%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	65.7%	38.8%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	38.5%	36.6%	46.1%	—	52.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	61.8%	40.1%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	43.9%	50.0%	47.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	58.4%	38.5%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	40.3%	43.5%	75.3%	50.0%	57.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	35.7%	33.6%	76.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	25.1%	34.1%	65.9%	—	58.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	31.4%	35.9%	67.5%	—	64.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	14.4%	35.4%	55.0%	32.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	12.2%	37.3%	59.0%	—	61.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	12.7%	42.0%	52.7%	43.3%	63.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	18.2%	37.7%	74.7%	—	70.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	21.2%	28.0%	78.8%	47.1%	64.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	83.8%	48.5%	75.2%	—	82.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	86.6%	39.1%	72.4%	83.9%	87.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	78.5%	41.8%	77.2%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	48.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
National Blend	59%	48.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	51%	48.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391
AIFS Single	37%	49.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3956
WeatherNext 2	30%	50.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4858
ICON	28%	50.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5242
IFS Ensemble	<1%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9940

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 48°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMAX-LE48
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 48°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗