KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

84%

68%

49%

48%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.8¢Risks 70.85u

HRESNO 29.2¢Risks 29.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.15u · HRES −29.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	7.6%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	35.3%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	5.5%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	45.1%	21.9%	11.9%	—	43.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	52.2%	49.3%	43.4%	—	37.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	5.6%	28.3%	23.4%	—	30.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	61.0%	33.7%	51.6%	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	5.3%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	62.3%	60.7%	62.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	35.0%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	54.4%	67.0%	62.1%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	58.0%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	51.8%	65.3%	50.9%	—	40.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	57.5%	67.4%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	63.4%	59.6%	46.1%	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	60.9%	70.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	68.8%	63.1%	64.1%	—	51.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	63.5%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	62.9%	61.8%	63.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	57.8%	59.0%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	59.2%	59.2%	68.0%	—	60.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	57.2%	61.9%	61.9%	—	65.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	57.4%	72.4%	58.7%	75.4%	64.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	56.4%	66.3%	63.9%	—	65.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	58.0%	69.3%	72.7%	74.9%	73.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	71.2%	74.7%	72.4%	—	79.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	78.8%	82.8%	83.7%	75.5%	80.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	79.8%	76.4%	71.5%	—	56.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	80.8%	78.6%	76.2%	65.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	89.3%	87.7%	87.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	62.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0035
National Blend	85%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0225
AIFS Single	84%	61.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0269
ICON	68%	58.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1050
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	49%	56.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2601
IFS HRES	48%	56.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2746

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗