KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

84%

68%

49%

48%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.8¢Risks 70.85u

HRESNO 29.2¢Risks 29.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.15u · HRES −29.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:41+00:00	81.2%	53.4%	76.5%	62.0%	70.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	76.5%	62.0%	70.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	87.2%	62.0%	70.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	87.2%	62.0%	70.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	87.2%	62.0%	70.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	87.2%	62.0%	70.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	87.2%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	87.2%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	87.2%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	87.2%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	80.7%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:19+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	89.8%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	92.9%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	92.9%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:02+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	92.9%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	85.0%	50.0%	92.9%	51.8%	24.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:43+00:00	83.6%	50.0%	92.9%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	83.6%	50.0%	92.9%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	83.6%	50.0%	92.9%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	83.6%	50.0%	92.9%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	83.6%	57.9%	90.7%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	83.6%	57.9%	90.7%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	83.6%	57.9%	90.7%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	83.6%	57.9%	90.7%	54.8%	75.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	81.3%	57.9%	90.6%	54.8%	75.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	90.6%	54.8%	75.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:17+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	90.6%	54.8%	75.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	90.6%	54.8%	75.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	54.8%	75.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	54.8%	75.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	54.8%	75.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	54.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	54.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	54.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:59+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	54.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	91.7%	55.4%	75.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	81.3%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	76.0%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	75.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	76.3%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	76.3%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	76.3%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	76.3%	55.7%	92.0%	55.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T10:32:13+00:00	76.3%	55.7%	92.0%	47.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:34+00:00	76.3%	49.0%	94.1%	47.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	76.3%	49.0%	94.1%	47.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	76.3%	49.0%	94.1%	47.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	83.6%	49.0%	94.1%	47.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	83.6%	49.0%	94.1%	47.6%	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	62.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0035
National Blend	85%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0225
AIFS Single	84%	61.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0269
ICON	68%	58.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1050
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	49%	56.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2601
IFS HRES	48%	56.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2746

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗