KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

65%

60%

22%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.35u · ICON −40.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:50+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	84.6%	42.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	84.6%	42.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	88.2%	42.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	88.2%	42.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	88.2%	42.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:00+00:00	81.2%	33.5%	88.2%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	81.2%	33.5%	88.2%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	81.2%	33.5%	88.2%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	81.2%	33.5%	88.2%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	81.2%	33.5%	88.2%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	81.2%	33.5%	91.4%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	81.2%	44.0%	91.4%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	81.2%	44.0%	91.4%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	85.3%	44.0%	91.4%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	85.3%	44.0%	91.4%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	85.3%	42.7%	91.4%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	85.3%	42.7%	91.4%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	85.3%	42.7%	93.1%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	85.3%	42.7%	93.1%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	85.3%	42.7%	93.1%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	85.3%	42.7%	93.1%	42.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	83.1%	42.7%	93.1%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	83.1%	42.7%	93.1%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	83.1%	42.7%	93.1%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	83.1%	42.7%	93.1%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	83.1%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	83.1%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	83.1%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	90.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	81.9%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	83.7%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	83.7%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	83.7%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	83.7%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	83.7%	42.7%	89.4%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	83.7%	51.4%	91.7%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	83.7%	51.4%	91.7%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	83.7%	51.4%	91.7%	50.0%	37.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	85.5%	51.4%	91.7%	43.2%	37.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	85.5%	51.4%	91.7%	43.2%	37.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:01+00:00	84.3%	47.3%	91.2%	51.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:20+00:00	84.3%	47.3%	92.7%	51.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	84.3%	47.3%	92.7%	51.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	84.3%	47.3%	92.7%	51.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	86.2%	47.3%	92.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	86.2%	47.3%	92.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	86.2%	47.3%	92.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	86.2%	47.3%	92.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	86.2%	47.3%	92.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	86.2%	61.6%	94.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	86.2%	61.6%	94.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	86.2%	61.6%	94.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	86.2%	61.6%	94.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	86.2%	61.4%	94.7%	55.3%	22.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	91.1%	65.3%	92.6%	59.6%	22.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	91.1%	65.3%	97.1%	59.6%	22.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	91.1%	65.3%	97.1%	59.6%	22.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	91.1%	65.3%	97.1%	59.6%	22.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	91.1%	65.3%	97.1%	59.6%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	64.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	91%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0079
National Blend	67%	59.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1076
IFS Ensemble	65%	59.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1204
IFS HRES	60%	59.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1632
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	22%	55.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6053

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗