KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

65%

60%

22%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.35u · ICON −40.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	24.4%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	31.7%	13.0%	6.3%	—	29.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	37.8%	35.0%	29.7%	—	24.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	2.4%	16.9%	13.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	45.2%	20.6%	35.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	2.1%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	45.8%	44.2%	45.8%	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	20.8%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	37.1%	50.0%	44.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	40.2%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	33.9%	47.2%	33.0%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	38.8%	49.0%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	44.2%	40.4%	27.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	41.1%	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	49.0%	42.8%	43.9%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	42.6%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	41.3%	40.3%	42.4%	—	29.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	35.7%	36.7%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	36.3%	36.3%	45.4%	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	33.6%	38.1%	38.1%	—	41.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	33.1%	48.8%	34.2%	52.5%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	31.4%	41.0%	38.5%	—	39.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	31.9%	43.3%	47.3%	50.0%	48.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	44.4%	48.6%	45.8%	—	55.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	52.9%	58.6%	60.1%	48.5%	55.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	53.0%	48.5%	42.5%	—	27.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	53.2%	50.0%	46.8%	34.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	66.1%	63.0%	63.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	64.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	91%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0079
National Blend	67%	59.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1076
IFS Ensemble	65%	59.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1204
IFS HRES	60%	59.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1632
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	22%	55.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6053

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗