KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

86%

53%

49%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.5¢Risks 50.55u

ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.45u · ICON −49.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.0%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	19.8%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	25.7%	9.6%	4.4%	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	31.0%	28.5%	23.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	1.5%	12.5%	9.7%	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	37.5%	15.4%	28.8%	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	1.3%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	37.7%	36.1%	37.7%	—	17.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	15.2%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	29.1%	41.3%	36.3%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	31.8%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	25.9%	38.2%	25.1%	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	30.1%	39.7%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	34.8%	31.3%	20.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	38.8%	33.0%	34.0%	—	22.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	32.6%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	31.1%	30.1%	32.1%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	25.8%	26.7%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	26.0%	26.0%	34.1%	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	23.4%	27.3%	27.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	22.7%	36.5%	23.6%	40.1%	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	20.9%	29.1%	26.9%	—	28.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	21.0%	30.7%	34.3%	36.8%	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	31.2%	35.0%	32.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	38.6%	44.2%	45.7%	34.5%	41.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.1%	33.8%	28.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	37.6%	34.6%	31.7%	21.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	50.0%	46.7%	46.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	62.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0185
AIFS Single	86%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0190
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	53%	59.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2247
IFS HRES	49%	59.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2611
National Blend	32%	59.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.4556
ICON	15%	55.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7276

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗