KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

79%

61%

51%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

EPSNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.50u · EPS −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	28.4%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	9.6%	59.4%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	49.3%	76.5%	2.0%	—	36.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	41.3%	47.8%	52.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	28.9%	76.1%	45.4%	—	35.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	44.4%	63.3%	50.0%	—	30.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	2.9%	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	57.5%	61.5%	50.8%	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	62.6%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	64.6%	58.7%	52.6%	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	71.3%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	69.5%	71.0%	68.6%	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	63.9%	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	67.0%	78.2%	67.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	64.7%	70.1%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	65.1%	80.3%	58.2%	—	47.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	60.5%	80.2%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	62.9%	79.4%	58.7%	0.0%	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	61.1%	74.2%	0.5%	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	62.6%	75.8%	61.5%	34.1%	54.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	65.3%	75.6%	63.0%	—	57.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	73.4%	77.3%	61.1%	0.0%	56.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	69.8%	67.5%	56.4%	—	48.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	68.1%	73.9%	47.3%	28.4%	47.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	74.7%	74.7%	55.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	82.8%	75.5%	68.2%	55.8%	54.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	86.4%	86.4%	74.0%	56.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	81.9%	75.0%	60.9%	57.9%	60.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	87.7%	83.0%	81.9%	—	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	95%	69.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0026
ICON	79%	65.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0445
IFS HRES	61%	62.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1521
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1945
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.2079
IFS Ensemble	51%	61.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.2381

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗