KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

79%

61%

51%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

EPSNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.50u · EPS −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	86.2%	44.7%	90.2%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	86.2%	50.0%	90.2%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	86.2%	50.0%	90.2%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	81.4%	50.0%	90.2%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	81.3%	50.0%	90.1%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T15:26:42+00:00	81.3%	50.0%	90.1%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	81.3%	47.0%	90.1%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	81.3%	47.0%	92.1%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	81.3%	47.0%	92.1%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	81.3%	47.0%	92.1%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	81.3%	47.0%	92.1%	54.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	92.1%	47.5%	67.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	92.1%	47.5%	67.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	92.1%	47.5%	67.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	92.1%	47.5%	67.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	86.5%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T04:15:19+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	94.2%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	96.5%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	96.5%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:02+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	96.5%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	87.6%	47.0%	96.5%	47.5%	67.1%
2026-10-13T08:02:43+00:00	84.1%	47.0%	96.5%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	84.1%	47.0%	96.5%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	84.1%	47.0%	96.5%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	84.1%	47.0%	96.5%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	84.1%	38.2%	94.0%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	84.1%	38.2%	94.0%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	84.1%	38.2%	94.0%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	84.1%	38.2%	94.0%	62.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	82.2%	38.2%	93.9%	62.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	82.2%	37.1%	93.9%	62.6%	63.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	88.3%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	54.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	88.3%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	54.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	88.3%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	54.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	88.3%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	88.3%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	88.3%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	54.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	90.9%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	62.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	90.9%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	62.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	90.9%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	62.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	90.9%	37.1%	96.5%	54.2%	62.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:13+00:00	90.9%	37.1%	96.5%	51.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:34+00:00	90.9%	36.9%	95.1%	51.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	90.9%	36.9%	95.1%	51.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	90.9%	36.9%	95.1%	51.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	93.0%	36.9%	95.1%	51.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	92.9%	36.9%	95.1%	51.4%	62.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	96.6%	51.2%	97.7%	45.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	96.6%	51.2%	97.7%	45.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	96.6%	51.2%	98.5%	45.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	96.6%	51.2%	98.5%	45.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	96.6%	51.2%	98.5%	45.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	96.6%	51.2%	98.5%	45.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	98.5%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	98.5%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	98.5%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	98.5%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	97.8%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	97.8%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	97.8%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	97.8%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	97.8%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	97.8%	61.0%	78.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	94.9%	51.2%	97.8%	61.0%	78.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	95%	69.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0026
ICON	79%	65.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0445
IFS HRES	61%	62.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1521
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1945
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.2079
IFS Ensemble	51%	61.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.2381

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗