KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

92%

44%

32%

30%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.90u · ICON −36.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:17+00:00	70.8%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	70.8%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	70.8%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	70.8%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	70.8%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	42.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	42.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	42.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:59+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	86.7%	50.6%	42.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	86.7%	42.1%	42.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	91.5%	42.1%	42.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	91.5%	42.1%	42.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	76.3%	17.7%	91.5%	42.1%	42.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	79.1%	17.7%	91.5%	42.1%	42.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	79.1%	17.7%	91.5%	42.1%	42.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	87.9%	37.8%	49.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	87.9%	37.8%	49.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	87.9%	37.8%	49.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	37.8%	49.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	37.8%	49.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	37.8%	49.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:29+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	86.3%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	85.2%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	85.7%	19.8%	85.2%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	85.2%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	85.2%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	85.2%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T04:01:50+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	85.2%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	85.2%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	88.8%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	88.8%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	87.4%	19.8%	88.8%	38.4%	60.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:00+00:00	87.1%	19.8%	88.8%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	87.1%	19.8%	88.8%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	87.1%	19.8%	88.8%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	87.1%	19.8%	88.8%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	87.1%	19.8%	88.8%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	87.1%	19.8%	92.7%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	87.1%	29.8%	92.7%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	87.1%	29.8%	92.7%	30.2%	61.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	91.8%	29.8%	92.7%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	91.8%	29.8%	92.7%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	88.5%	28.8%	93.0%	45.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	88.5%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	88.5%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	88.5%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	89.6%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	89.6%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	89.6%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	89.6%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	89.6%	28.8%	92.7%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	89.6%	44.3%	93.5%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	89.6%	44.3%	93.5%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	89.6%	44.3%	93.5%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	90.9%	44.3%	93.5%	38.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	90.9%	44.3%	93.5%	38.6%	55.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:01+00:00	90.1%	40.1%	95.2%	36.0%	52.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:20+00:00	90.1%	40.1%	94.9%	36.0%	52.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	90.1%	40.1%	94.9%	36.0%	52.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	90.1%	40.1%	94.9%	36.0%	52.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	89.9%	40.1%	94.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	89.9%	40.1%	94.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	89.9%	40.1%	94.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	89.9%	40.1%	94.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	89.9%	40.1%	94.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	89.9%	45.8%	95.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	89.9%	45.8%	95.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	89.9%	45.8%	95.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	87.6%	45.8%	95.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	87.6%	45.9%	95.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.9%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	93.1%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	95.3%	36.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	91.9%	50.0%	95.3%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	91.9%	50.0%	95.3%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	91.9%	50.0%	95.3%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	91.9%	50.0%	95.3%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	91.9%	51.3%	95.4%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	91.9%	51.3%	95.4%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	91.9%	51.3%	95.4%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	91.9%	51.3%	95.4%	35.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	88.8%	51.3%	95.4%	35.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:34+00:00	88.8%	51.3%	95.4%	35.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	88.8%	43.9%	95.4%	35.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	88.8%	43.9%	95.4%	35.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	88.8%	43.9%	95.0%	35.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	88.8%	43.9%	95.0%	35.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	88.8%	43.9%	95.0%	35.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.0%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.0%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.0%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.0%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.0%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	88.4%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	95.4%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	96.6%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	96.6%	32.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	91.5%	43.9%	96.6%	32.3%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	68.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	68.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	63.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	61.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗