KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

92%

44%

32%

30%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.90u · ICON −36.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	18.5%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	5.0%	46.0%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	35.6%	64.4%	0.8%	—	24.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	27.9%	33.7%	38.5%	—	21.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	17.4%	62.7%	30.9%	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	29.5%	47.6%	34.5%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	1.0%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	40.9%	45.0%	34.5%	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	45.7%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	47.4%	41.3%	35.4%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	54.5%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	51.8%	53.7%	50.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	45.3%	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	48.0%	61.5%	49.0%	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	45.0%	51.0%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	44.9%	63.1%	37.8%	—	28.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	39.5%	62.5%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	41.3%	60.8%	37.1%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	38.9%	53.4%	0.1%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	39.6%	54.6%	38.5%	16.0%	32.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	41.6%	53.6%	39.3%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	50.0%	55.0%	36.5%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	44.9%	42.3%	31.4%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	42.0%	48.7%	23.0%	10.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.9%	48.6%	48.6%	28.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	58.6%	48.5%	40.0%	28.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	68.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	68.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	63.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	61.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗