KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

50%

46%

41%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

ICONNO 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.75u · ICON −31.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	83.6%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	59.0%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	10.5%	47.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	52.1%	78.1%	29.2%	—	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	72.8%	72.2%	67.7%	—	51.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	64.2%	69.7%	35.1%	—	42.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	57.9%	83.2%	39.7%	—	54.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	9.5%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	70.7%	84.3%	74.2%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	56.0%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	71.6%	66.2%	70.9%	—	55.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	64.9%	46.4%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	53.7%	57.3%	57.3%	—	54.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	36.1%	63.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	40.4%	59.6%	50.0%	—	54.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	27.4%	68.3%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	29.4%	58.2%	32.1%	0.2%	38.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	34.5%	56.3%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	40.3%	55.5%	35.1%	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	45.5%	51.1%	0.1%	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	45.4%	40.8%	5.7%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	53.6%	46.4%	14.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	63.4%	48.8%	14.4%	40.1%	23.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	59.0%	42.3%	17.4%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	55.4%	46.0%	12.7%	30.7%	21.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	55.6%	48.6%	15.6%	—	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	65.5%	65.5%	26.8%	44.2%	34.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	64.8%	18.1%	—	28.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	66.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	61.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	61.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	41%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗