KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

50%

46%

41%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

ICONNO 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.75u · ICON −31.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:34+00:00	89.1%	56.6%	98.1%	45.1%	36.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	89.1%	48.7%	98.1%	45.1%	36.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	89.1%	48.7%	98.1%	45.1%	36.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	89.1%	48.7%	97.9%	45.1%	36.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	89.1%	48.7%	97.9%	45.1%	36.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	89.1%	48.7%	97.9%	45.1%	36.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	97.9%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	97.9%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	97.9%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	97.9%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	97.9%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	96.5%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	95.6%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	95.6%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	95.6%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	95.6%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	95.6%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	95.6%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	95.6%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	95.6%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	96.3%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	96.3%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	96.3%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	85.1%	48.7%	96.3%	43.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	85.2%	48.7%	96.3%	43.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	85.2%	50.0%	96.3%	43.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	85.2%	50.0%	96.3%	43.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	85.2%	50.0%	96.3%	43.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	85.2%	50.0%	95.0%	43.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	85.2%	50.0%	95.0%	43.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	85.2%	50.0%	95.0%	43.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.0%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.0%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.0%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.0%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.0%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.4%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.4%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	95.4%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	90.3%	50.0%	95.4%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	90.3%	50.0%	95.4%	45.7%	41.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	90.3%	50.0%	95.4%	45.7%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	66.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	61.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	61.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	41%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗