KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

26%

26%

19%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.65u · ICON −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:43+00:00	93.0%	56.8%	91.1%	51.9%	31.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	93.0%	56.8%	91.1%	51.9%	31.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	93.0%	56.8%	91.1%	51.9%	31.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	93.0%	56.8%	91.1%	51.9%	31.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	90.3%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	61.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	90.3%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	61.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	90.3%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	61.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	90.3%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	61.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	90.3%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	61.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	90.3%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	61.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	94.4%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	75.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	94.4%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	75.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	94.4%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	75.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	94.4%	43.4%	94.1%	48.7%	75.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:13+00:00	94.4%	43.4%	94.1%	60.2%	75.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:34+00:00	94.4%	35.4%	94.9%	60.2%	75.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	94.4%	35.4%	94.9%	60.2%	75.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	94.4%	35.4%	94.9%	60.2%	75.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	90.7%	35.4%	94.9%	60.2%	75.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	90.6%	35.7%	94.6%	60.2%	75.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:50+00:00	85.1%	40.9%	88.1%	44.6%	69.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	85.1%	40.9%	88.1%	44.6%	69.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	85.1%	40.9%	87.6%	44.6%	69.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	85.1%	40.9%	87.6%	44.6%	69.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	85.1%	40.9%	87.6%	44.6%	69.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:00+00:00	92.3%	40.9%	87.6%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	92.3%	40.9%	87.6%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	92.3%	40.9%	87.6%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	92.3%	40.9%	87.6%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	92.3%	40.9%	87.6%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	92.3%	40.9%	92.1%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	92.3%	51.5%	92.1%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	92.3%	51.5%	92.1%	40.4%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	90.5%	51.5%	92.1%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	90.5%	51.5%	92.1%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	92.1%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	92.1%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	94.8%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	94.8%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	94.8%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	94.8%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	94.8%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	94.8%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	94.8%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	94.8%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	92.1%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	92.1%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	92.1%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	90.2%	50.0%	92.1%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	90.2%	50.0%	92.1%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	90.2%	50.0%	92.1%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	90.2%	50.0%	92.1%	59.6%	70.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	89.4%	37.7%	19.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	87.6%	37.7%	19.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	87.6%	37.7%	19.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	87.6%	37.7%	19.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	87.6%	37.7%	19.6%
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	87.6%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	87.6%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	87.6%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	87.6%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	80.6%	30.5%	92.2%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	80.6%	30.5%	92.2%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	80.6%	30.5%	92.2%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	80.6%	30.5%	92.2%	27.1%	18.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	77.0%	30.9%	92.2%	27.1%	18.4%
2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00	78.5%	26.3%	84.1%	25.9%	21.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	78.5%	26.3%	84.1%	25.9%	21.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	78.5%	26.3%	89.8%	25.9%	21.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	78.5%	26.3%	89.8%	25.9%	21.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	78.5%	26.3%	89.8%	25.9%	21.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	87.3%	26.3%	89.8%	25.9%	18.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	87.3%	26.3%	89.8%	25.9%	18.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	87.3%	26.3%	89.8%	25.9%	18.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	87.3%	26.3%	89.8%	25.9%	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	67.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	63.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	61.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	61.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	60.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗