KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

26%

26%

19%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.65u · ICON −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	74.6%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	46.1%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	5.6%	34.2%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	38.2%	66.4%	18.4%	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	59.4%	58.7%	53.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	49.2%	55.3%	22.2%	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	42.1%	71.2%	25.5%	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	4.3%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	55.0%	72.1%	59.1%	—	46.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	39.0%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	55.2%	49.1%	54.4%	—	37.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	47.3%	29.4%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	35.6%	39.1%	39.1%	—	36.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	20.3%	45.3%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	23.2%	40.4%	31.3%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	13.5%	49.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	14.5%	37.8%	16.3%	0.0%	21.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	17.6%	35.5%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	21.3%	34.1%	17.6%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	24.9%	29.6%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	24.2%	20.7%	1.5%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	30.4%	24.4%	4.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	38.9%	25.6%	4.6%	19.1%	8.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	33.7%	20.0%	5.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	29.5%	22.0%	3.5%	12.0%	7.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	28.8%	23.2%	4.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	37.2%	37.2%	8.9%	19.1%	13.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	35.2%	4.8%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	67.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	63.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	61.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	61.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	60.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗