KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

63%

26%

22%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.50u · ICON −58.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	63.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	33.6%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	2.7%	22.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	25.7%	52.8%	10.5%	—	26.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	44.9%	44.2%	39.2%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	34.4%	40.2%	12.5%	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	27.4%	56.4%	14.5%	—	24.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	1.7%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	38.5%	56.6%	42.5%	—	30.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	23.9%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	37.9%	32.2%	37.1%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.2%	16.1%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	20.3%	23.0%	23.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	9.6%	27.6%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	11.1%	23.2%	16.5%	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	5.4%	29.9%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	5.8%	20.4%	6.7%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	7.2%	18.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	9.0%	16.9%	7.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	10.7%	13.5%	0.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	10.0%	8.1%	0.3%	0.0%	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	13.2%	9.7%	1.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	18.2%	10.0%	1.0%	6.7%	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	14.3%	6.8%	1.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	11.3%	7.4%	0.6%	3.2%	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	10.4%	7.6%	0.8%	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	14.6%	14.6%	1.9%	5.5%	3.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	12.8%	0.8%	—	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	66.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	63.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗