KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

63%

26%

22%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.50u · ICON −58.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	82.8%	18.6%	88.1%	48.2%	65.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	82.8%	18.6%	88.1%	48.2%	65.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	82.8%	18.6%	88.1%	48.2%	65.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	82.8%	18.6%	79.9%	48.2%	65.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	82.8%	18.6%	79.9%	48.2%	65.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	82.8%	18.6%	79.9%	48.2%	65.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	65.8%	18.6%	79.9%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	65.8%	18.6%	79.9%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	65.8%	18.6%	79.9%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	65.8%	18.6%	79.9%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	65.8%	18.6%	79.9%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:29+00:00	65.8%	18.6%	79.9%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	65.8%	18.7%	77.3%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	65.8%	18.7%	77.3%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	74.8%	18.7%	77.3%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	74.8%	18.7%	77.3%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	74.8%	18.7%	77.3%	33.0%	58.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	81.2%	22.1%	82.2%	45.9%	58.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	81.2%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	58.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	81.2%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	58.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	81.2%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	58.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	83.1%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	83.1%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	83.1%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	83.1%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	83.1%	22.1%	83.5%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	83.1%	26.7%	87.1%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	83.1%	26.7%	87.1%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	83.1%	26.7%	87.1%	45.9%	52.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	76.4%	26.7%	87.1%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	76.4%	26.7%	87.1%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	76.4%	23.4%	87.1%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	76.4%	23.4%	87.1%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	76.4%	23.4%	87.1%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	76.4%	23.4%	83.3%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	76.4%	23.4%	83.3%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	76.4%	23.4%	83.3%	29.5%	52.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	83.3%	29.5%	34.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	83.3%	29.5%	34.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	83.3%	29.5%	34.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	83.3%	29.5%	34.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	83.3%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:01+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	87.1%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:20+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	70.0%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	70.4%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	70.4%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	70.4%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	70.4%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	70.4%	23.4%	84.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	70.4%	22.4%	85.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	70.4%	22.4%	85.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	70.4%	22.4%	85.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	61.0%	22.4%	85.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	61.0%	22.8%	85.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	85.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	85.0%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	82.9%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	82.9%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	82.9%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	82.9%	35.2%	13.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	82.9%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	82.9%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	82.9%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	82.9%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	74.3%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	74.3%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	74.3%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	61.9%	25.6%	74.3%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	62.8%	25.6%	74.3%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	62.8%	25.6%	74.3%	22.3%	8.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	62.8%	25.6%	74.3%	22.3%	8.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	66.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	63.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗