KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

74%

54%

50%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

HRESNO 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.65u · HRES −43.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	18.1%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	14.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	23.6%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	2.7%	43.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	26.9%	43.7%	3.3%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	44.9%	15.2%	16.5%	—	26.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	42.4%	12.2%	38.0%	—	30.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	22.4%	5.9%	55.6%	—	26.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	0.2%	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	33.8%	4.7%	32.2%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	12.3%	8.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	17.8%	12.7%	20.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	10.3%	14.5%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	3.8%	13.9%	6.3%	—	11.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	3.2%	17.1%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	6.5%	15.3%	2.7%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	10.0%	20.4%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	4.2%	13.4%	1.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	4.7%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	5.3%	19.8%	1.4%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	6.7%	19.0%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	3.8%	23.3%	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	7.8%	34.7%	0.0%	—	3.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	6.3%	28.7%	0.2%	4.0%	4.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	—	23.8%	0.3%	—	2.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	21.0%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	67.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	54%	65.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	64.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	61.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 65°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗