KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

74%

54%

50%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

HRESNO 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.65u · HRES −43.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:34+00:00	95.9%	46.4%	92.6%	62.4%	24.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	95.9%	46.4%	92.6%	62.4%	24.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	95.9%	46.4%	92.6%	62.4%	24.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	89.4%	46.4%	92.6%	62.4%	24.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	89.4%	46.4%	92.5%	62.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	92.5%	62.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	92.5%	62.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	92.5%	62.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	86.8%	62.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	86.8%	62.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	86.8%	62.4%	24.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	86.8%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	86.8%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	86.8%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	86.8%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	86.8%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:29+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	86.8%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	74.5%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	74.5%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	74.5%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	74.5%	32.4%	54.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	80.3%	50.0%	74.5%	32.4%	54.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	67.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	54%	65.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	64.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	61.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 65°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗