KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

18%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.7¢Risks 19.70u

EPSNO 80.3¢Risks 80.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.30u · EPS −80.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.7%	0.3%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.9%	0.3%	0.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	8.4%	1.0%	2.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	2.4%	0.8%	1.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	3.3%	1.1%	0.5%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	1.6%	2.3%	1.3%	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	5.4%	2.3%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	3.6%	2.3%	0.9%	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	4.3%	1.5%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	4.3%	1.7%	5.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	3.8%	1.2%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	4.6%	1.2%	3.4%	—	10.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	6.3%	1.0%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	3.2%	0.8%	6.4%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	7.6%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	6.6%	0.4%	2.4%	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	11.8%	0.5%	2.4%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	9.4%	0.4%	0.5%	36.3%	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	12.6%	0.3%	0.1%	—	11.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	17.4%	0.2%	0.4%	33.1%	8.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	0.1%	1.5%	—	10.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	39%	33.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	34.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	18%	35.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	36.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	37.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	39.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	37.0°F	1.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗