KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

18%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.7¢Risks 19.70u

EPSNO 80.3¢Risks 80.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.30u · EPS −80.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00	31.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	31.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	31.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	14.0%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	14.0%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	14.0%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	14.0%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	14.0%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	37.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	15.9%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	16.5%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	16.5%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	36.3%	0.1%	16.5%	18.3%	11.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	16.5%	18.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	16.5%	18.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	16.5%	18.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	16.5%	18.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	11.3%	6.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	11.3%	6.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	11.3%	6.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	11.3%	6.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	11.3%	6.3%	18.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	11.3%	6.3%	18.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	39%	33.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	34.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	18%	35.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	36.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	37.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	39.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	37.0°F	1.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗