KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

30%

27%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

HRESNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.70u · HRES −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	27.0%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	83.6%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	3.6%	44.6%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	52.8%	47.9%	11.2%	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	22.1%	71.5%	72.2%	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	43.2%	67.0%	31.6%	—	53.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	33.7%	67.7%	48.4%	—	42.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	0.1%	71.7%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	24.5%	63.9%	31.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	33.4%	64.2%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	40.5%	66.2%	33.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	40.2%	82.2%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	43.6%	77.7%	22.3%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	19.6%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	35.7%	67.8%	12.6%	—	16.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	29.1%	64.7%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	21.2%	67.0%	6.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	21.3%	71.2%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	13.7%	67.9%	27.3%	43.5%	14.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	65.4%	0.0%	—	10.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	65.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	59.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	59.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	54.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗