KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

30%

27%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

HRESNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.70u · HRES −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	81.4%	29.8%	93.9%	12.6%	42.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	81.4%	29.8%	93.9%	12.6%	42.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	81.4%	29.8%	93.9%	12.6%	42.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	81.4%	29.8%	88.9%	12.6%	42.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	81.4%	29.8%	88.9%	12.6%	42.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	81.4%	29.8%	88.9%	12.6%	42.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	88.9%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	88.9%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	88.9%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	88.9%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	88.9%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	87.7%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	87.7%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	78.8%	29.8%	87.7%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	84.9%	29.8%	87.7%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	84.9%	29.8%	87.7%	6.9%	27.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	84.9%	29.8%	87.7%	6.9%	27.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	65.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	59.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	59.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	54.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗