KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

50%

23%

19%

10%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.65u

HRESNO 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.35u · HRES −66.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	10.7%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	62.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	0.7%	20.8%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	26.3%	22.4%	2.7%	—	27.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	6.6%	43.4%	44.2%	—	26.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	17.4%	37.2%	10.7%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	11.1%	36.7%	20.1%	—	16.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.0%	40.3%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	6.3%	31.5%	9.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	9.9%	31.1%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	13.1%	32.2%	9.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	12.5%	50.9%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	13.9%	43.6%	4.6%	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	3.6%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	9.0%	30.4%	1.7%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	6.0%	26.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	3.4%	27.6%	0.6%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	3.1%	30.7%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	1.4%	26.4%	4.5%	10.4%	1.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	23.1%	0.0%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	66.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	60.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	62.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	58.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗