KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

50%

23%

19%

10%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.65u

HRESNO 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.35u · HRES −66.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	70.0%	32.1%	83.3%	33.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	70.0%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	70.0%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	70.0%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	77.7%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	77.7%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	77.7%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	77.7%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	77.7%	32.1%	84.7%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	77.7%	26.5%	85.3%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	77.7%	26.5%	85.3%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	77.7%	26.5%	85.3%	33.7%	25.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	67.2%	26.5%	85.3%	30.9%	25.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	67.1%	26.5%	85.3%	30.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	67.1%	25.4%	85.3%	30.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	67.1%	25.3%	85.3%	30.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	67.1%	25.3%	85.3%	30.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	67.1%	25.3%	84.8%	30.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	67.1%	25.3%	84.8%	30.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	67.1%	25.3%	84.8%	30.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	84.8%	30.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	84.8%	30.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	84.8%	30.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	84.8%	30.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	84.8%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	55.9%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	77.3%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	67.4%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	67.4%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	56.6%	25.3%	67.4%	36.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	63.4%	25.3%	67.4%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	63.4%	25.3%	67.4%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	63.4%	25.3%	67.4%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	63.4%	25.3%	67.4%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	63.4%	25.3%	67.4%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	63.4%	15.9%	66.9%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	63.4%	15.9%	66.9%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	63.4%	15.9%	66.9%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	58.0%	15.9%	66.9%	20.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	58.0%	15.9%	66.9%	20.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	58.0%	19.1%	66.9%	20.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	58.0%	19.1%	66.9%	20.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	58.0%	19.1%	58.7%	20.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	58.0%	19.1%	58.7%	20.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	58.0%	19.1%	58.7%	20.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	58.0%	19.1%	58.7%	20.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	58.7%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	58.7%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	58.7%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	58.7%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	50.0%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	50.0%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	50.0%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	50.0%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	57.2%	19.1%	50.0%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	57.2%	19.1%	50.0%	10.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	57.2%	19.1%	50.0%	10.1%	22.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	66.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	60.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	62.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	58.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗