KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

86%

54%

46%

25%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

HRESNO 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.95u · HRES −38.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	21.6%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	26.2%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	5.8%	93.4%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	40.3%	89.8%	50.7%	—	75.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	37.8%	74.0%	68.3%	—	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	13.8%	85.8%	30.3%	—	44.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	78.3%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	47.6%	65.5%	22.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	11.4%	65.1%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	60.7%	65.5%	55.8%	—	23.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	34.2%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	28.4%	70.1%	5.4%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	20.9%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	13.4%	67.8%	7.9%	—	5.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	42.5%	76.9%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	39.4%	70.4%	33.9%	43.2%	14.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	72.6%	—	—	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	62.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	61.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	56.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	57.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	56.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	53.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗