KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

86%

54%

46%

25%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

HRESNO 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.95u · HRES −38.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00	86.7%	73.9%	93.7%	25.6%	74.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	86.7%	73.9%	96.8%	25.6%	74.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	86.7%	73.9%	96.8%	25.6%	74.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	86.7%	73.9%	96.8%	25.6%	74.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00	90.1%	73.9%	96.8%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	90.1%	73.9%	96.8%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	90.1%	73.9%	96.8%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	90.1%	73.9%	96.8%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	90.1%	73.9%	96.8%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00	90.1%	49.0%	99.4%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	90.1%	49.0%	99.4%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	90.1%	49.0%	99.4%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	71.4%	49.0%	99.4%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	71.5%	49.0%	99.4%	26.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00	82.0%	51.0%	97.2%	7.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	82.0%	51.0%	97.2%	7.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	82.0%	51.0%	97.0%	7.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	82.0%	51.0%	97.0%	7.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	82.0%	51.0%	97.0%	7.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	85.5%	51.0%	97.0%	7.8%	46.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	85.5%	51.0%	97.0%	7.8%	46.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00	85.5%	51.0%	97.0%	7.8%	46.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	85.5%	51.0%	97.0%	7.8%	46.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00	85.5%	54.2%	97.0%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	85.5%	54.2%	97.0%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	85.5%	54.2%	97.0%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	85.5%	54.2%	97.0%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	85.5%	54.2%	97.0%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	85.5%	54.2%	97.0%	25.1%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	62.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	61.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	56.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	57.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	56.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	53.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗