KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u

EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.60u · EPS −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	19.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.3%	11.5%	0.7%	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.2%	2.7%	1.8%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	5.4%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	65.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	58.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	60.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	54.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	60.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗