KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u

EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.60u · EPS −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:03+00:00	33.1%	4.1%	30.4%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	33.2%	4.1%	30.5%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	33.2%	3.8%	30.5%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	33.2%	3.8%	30.5%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	33.2%	3.8%	30.5%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	33.2%	3.8%	20.5%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	33.2%	3.8%	20.5%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	33.2%	3.8%	20.5%	3.1%	3.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	20.5%	3.1%	13.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	20.5%	3.1%	13.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	20.5%	3.1%	13.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	20.5%	3.1%	13.9%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	20.5%	5.3%	13.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	22.7%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	24.0%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	18.4%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	18.4%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	14.0%	3.8%	18.4%	5.4%	13.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	13.0%	3.8%	18.4%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	13.0%	3.8%	18.4%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	13.0%	3.8%	18.4%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	13.0%	3.8%	18.4%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	13.0%	3.8%	18.4%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	13.3%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	13.3%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	13.3%	0.6%	4.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	13.3%	0.7%	4.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	13.3%	0.6%	4.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	13.3%	0.6%	4.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	13.3%	0.6%	4.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	65.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	58.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	60.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	54.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	60.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗