KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

40%

29%

25%

22%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.8¢Risks 39.80u

EPSNO 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.20u · EPS −60.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.7%	52.7%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	2.2%	66.4%	0.1%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	3.9%	57.3%	6.2%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	34.4%	65.6%	50.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	14.9%	43.6%	7.8%	—	7.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.0%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	12.9%	45.0%	14.8%	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	21.4%	61.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	22.1%	47.4%	15.6%	20.8%	7.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	5.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	64.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	59.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	56.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	60.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗