KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 12.6¢Risks 12.60u

EPSNO 87.4¢Risks 87.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +87.40u · EPS −87.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.0%	17.1%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.1%	26.3%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.2%	17.9%	0.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.0%	22.8%	12.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	8.7%	0.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.0%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.9%	8.3%	1.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.9%	15.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.8%	8.3%	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	7.1%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	25%	67.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	57.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	58.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗