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KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
83%
ICON
78%
HRES
45%
EPS
43%
Consensus
75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 70.9¢Risks 70.85u
VS
EPSNO 29.1¢Risks 29.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.15u · EPS −29.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:0086.3%36.8%93.9%52.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:0086.3%36.8%95.4%52.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:0086.3%36.8%95.4%52.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0086.3%36.8%95.4%52.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:0089.9%36.8%95.4%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0089.9%36.8%95.4%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0089.9%36.8%95.4%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0089.9%36.8%95.4%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0089.9%36.8%95.4%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:0089.9%42.9%98.8%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0089.9%42.9%98.8%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:0089.9%42.9%98.8%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:0083.2%42.9%98.8%45.2%78.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0083.2%42.9%98.8%45.2%78.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%72.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single83%66.7°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON78%67.0°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend67%63.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES45%60.7°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble43%60.8°F3.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗