KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

83%

78%

45%

43%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.9¢Risks 70.85u

EPSNO 29.1¢Risks 29.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.15u · EPS −29.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	48.8%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	90.7%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	0.0%	68.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	68.9%	80.6%	26.9%	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	63.6%	81.1%	34.3%	—	39.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	54.6%	78.4%	48.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	80.0%	84.6%	55.6%	54.8%	49.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	81.6%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	80.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	72.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	66.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	78%	67.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	60.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	60.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗