KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

74%

46%

28%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

EPSNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · EPS −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	42.8%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	87.7%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	0.0%	62.0%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	62.4%	75.4%	21.4%	—	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	56.6%	75.7%	27.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	46.9%	72.4%	40.9%	—	27.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	73.9%	79.4%	47.6%	46.8%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	75.7%	—	—	38.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	69.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	67.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	61.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	60.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗