KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

88%

79%

51%

38%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.9¢Risks 67.90u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.10u · EPS −32.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	36.9%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	84.0%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	0.0%	55.4%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	55.6%	69.5%	16.6%	—	30.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	49.3%	69.6%	22.1%	—	26.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	39.4%	65.6%	33.7%	—	21.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	67.0%	73.2%	39.7%	39.0%	33.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	68.8%	—	—	30.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	69.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	68.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	63.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	62.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗