KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

88%

79%

51%

38%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.9¢Risks 67.90u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.10u · EPS −32.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	66.2%	41.5%	76.2%	27.8%	3.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	66.2%	41.5%	76.2%	27.8%	3.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	66.2%	41.5%	76.2%	27.8%	3.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	66.2%	41.5%	76.2%	27.8%	3.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	72.3%	26.1%	96.7%	33.5%	68.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	72.3%	26.1%	96.7%	33.5%	68.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	72.3%	26.1%	96.7%	33.5%	68.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	72.3%	26.1%	96.6%	33.5%	68.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	72.3%	26.1%	96.6%	33.5%	68.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	72.3%	26.1%	96.6%	33.5%	68.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.6%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.6%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.6%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.6%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.6%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	70.4%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.9%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.0%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.0%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	78.7%	26.1%	96.0%	37.5%	62.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	87.6%	26.1%	96.0%	37.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	87.6%	26.1%	96.0%	37.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00	87.6%	26.1%	96.0%	37.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	87.6%	26.1%	96.0%	37.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00	87.6%	38.1%	97.7%	51.4%	78.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	87.6%	38.1%	97.7%	51.4%	78.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	87.6%	38.1%	97.7%	51.4%	78.9%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	87.6%	38.1%	97.7%	51.4%	78.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	87.6%	38.1%	97.7%	51.4%	78.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	87.6%	38.1%	97.7%	51.4%	78.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	69.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	68.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	63.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	62.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗