KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

48%

43%

16%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.0¢Risks 36.05u

EPSNO 63.9¢Risks 63.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.95u · EPS −63.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	10.6%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.0%	18.9%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	18.0%	29.2%	2.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	13.2%	27.9%	3.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	7.8%	22.8%	5.8%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	22.4%	28.1%	7.2%	6.9%	5.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	69.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	68.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	63.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	62.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗