KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

48%

43%

16%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.0¢Risks 36.05u

EPSNO 63.9¢Risks 63.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.95u · EPS −63.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:53+00:00	26.6%	8.2%	35.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	26.6%	8.2%	35.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	26.6%	8.2%	35.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	26.6%	8.2%	35.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	26.6%	1.9%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	26.6%	1.9%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	26.6%	1.9%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	26.6%	1.9%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	35.1%	1.9%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	35.1%	1.9%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	35.1%	1.2%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	35.1%	1.2%	34.1%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	35.1%	1.2%	40.7%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	35.1%	1.2%	40.7%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	35.1%	1.2%	40.7%	6.4%	0.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	40.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	40.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	40.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	40.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	40.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	35.7%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	49.2%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	54.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	54.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	38.4%	1.2%	54.7%	11.9%	47.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00	41.9%	1.2%	54.7%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	41.9%	1.2%	54.7%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	41.9%	1.2%	54.7%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	41.9%	1.2%	54.7%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	41.9%	1.2%	54.7%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00	41.9%	1.3%	71.1%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	41.9%	1.3%	71.1%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	41.9%	1.3%	71.1%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	30.2%	1.3%	71.1%	9.1%	36.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	30.2%	1.3%	71.1%	9.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	30.2%	1.5%	71.1%	9.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	30.2%	1.5%	71.1%	9.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	30.2%	1.5%	71.1%	9.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	30.2%	1.5%	70.4%	9.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	30.2%	1.5%	70.4%	9.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	30.2%	1.5%	70.4%	9.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	70.4%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	70.4%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	70.4%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	70.4%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	70.4%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	28.3%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	71.8%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	68.1%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	68.1%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	68.1%	11.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	47.6%	1.5%	68.1%	11.0%	42.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	47.6%	1.5%	68.1%	11.0%	42.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00	47.6%	1.5%	68.1%	11.0%	42.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	47.6%	1.5%	68.1%	11.0%	42.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00	47.6%	1.7%	70.4%	15.8%	42.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	47.6%	1.7%	70.4%	15.8%	42.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	47.6%	1.7%	70.4%	15.8%	42.8%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	47.6%	1.7%	70.4%	15.8%	42.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	47.6%	1.7%	70.4%	15.7%	42.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	47.6%	1.7%	70.4%	15.7%	42.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	69.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	68.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	63.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	62.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗