KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

70%

57%

40%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.7¢Risks 61.70u

AIFSNO 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.30u · AIFS −38.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	57.8%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	9.0%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	41.0%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	5.4%	71.2%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	63.8%	70.8%	14.1%	—	45.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	70.3%	80.1%	50.0%	75.1%	45.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	88.5%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	65.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	66.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	63.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	62.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	60.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗